Canadiens State Of the Rebuild – Current NHL Talent – Forwards

Much of the progress was due to Suzuki’s emergence as a top-line centre.

With all due respect to Caufield and Slafkovsky, it was Suzuki who drove the play on that line by providing them with ample time and space to build up speed in the neutral zone, not to mention an endless stream of controlled entries generated by the captain.

Once Slafkovsky and Caufield improve their play a little, there are healthy odds Suzuki will blow his career-high production this season, 33 goals and 44 assists in 82 games, out of the water.

The encouraging news is that both wingers are yet to enter their prime statistical seasons.

Beyond The Top Line

As we all know, one top functional line is not enough to compete for a Stanley Cup.

The historical numbers suggest you need roughly five stars to even qualify for the playoffs. The Canadiens currently have two star players: Suzuki and Caufield. Matheson also enjoyed a ‘star season’, whereas Slafkovsky is on the verge of qualifying.

Of course, Montreal Canadiens fans will be quick to point to Kirby Dach’s injury as a reason why the team struggled this season, as well as suggesting he has the potential to become a star player.

And they’d be right.

But we also have to keep in mind Dach’s injury history is a significant red flag as to his long-term value. It’s one of the reasons Hughes managed to acquire him for relatively cheap.

The injury this season was random, however, we simply can’t deny that Dach has had a very hard time staying healthy during his first five seasons in the NHL.

Of the 410 games in which he could have participated, he played just 212 due to his numerous injuries. That means he missed over 48 percent of scheduled games.

During his time with the Canadiens, things have only gotten worse.

Of the 164 games available to him, Dach played just 60.  In otherwords, he missed well over 63 percent of the games since joining the Habs.

His potential impact on the lineup is so significant that it’s worth seeing if he can remain healthy, but we have to remember much of the team’s long-term aspirations count upon having a solid top six, and those hopes will only be fulfilled if Dach can avoid another season-ending injury.

If that’s the case, players like Joshua Roy and Alex Newhook can complement a player like Dach, who has shown he has the ability to drive the offence while maintaining elite defensive numbers, a rarity in the Canadiens lineup.

Roy had some of the best underlying numbers on the entire team during his short audition in the NHL, whereas Newhook rebounded nicely from a foot injury, a reassuring situation for a player who depends on his blazing speed to generate scoring chances.

Finding Value

The rest of the forward lineup is, to put it mildly, a complete mess.

However, there was one interesting phenomenon in the bottom six.

With the exception of the top trio, only two lines that played together for more than 100 minutes this season managed to control more than 50 percent of the expected goals.

Both those lines featured Brendan Gallagher, who enjoyed quite a resurgence in underlying numbers. His production went down, that’s par for the course when you consider his time on ice was reduced, but his impact on the lineup was undeniable.

And we’re not talking about players who were dominant prior to Gallagher’s arrival on the line.

The Josh Anderson, Jake Evans, and Gallagher combination managed to finish the season with a 52.6 xGF%. They only had a 48 percent shot share, but it’s still rather impressive that Gallagher dragged two players to respectability, players who usually rank among the worst on the team in both metrics.

Evans controlled under 40 percent of the shots this season, whereas Anderson’s xGF% was a little over 42 percent. And those numbers include the time they spent controlling the play alongside Gallagher.

Of the remaining players in the lineup, you could suggest Joel Armia also enjoyed a Gallagher-like resurgence, both in his goal production and his underlying numbers. He doesn’t figure to be a part of the team’s long-term rebuild plans, but his improved play could lead to heightened value on the NHL’s trade market. The same can be said about Christian Dvorak, at least to a certain extent. His play down the stretch was fairly encouraging, albeit not enough to suggest he’s going to yield any type of important return in a trade.

Unfortunately, Rafael Harvey-Pinard saw a significant regression in both his underlying numbers and his production. The same can be said for Jesse Ylonen, who was clearly not an ideal fit on the fourth line.

Brass Tacks

We saw the first step towards respectability from an offensive standpoint, but there’s still a lot of work to be done.

If the top line can’t re-ignite their chemistry, the entire situation would collapse, as much of the enthusiasm regarding the rest of the lineup is based on hope.

Montreal Canadiens State Of The Rebuild Grade – NHL Forwards

The good news is that many of the players in question are either just entering their prime, or are about to do so.

But the fact of the matter remains the forward setup leaves a lot to be desired, especially since their counterparts on the blue line score more goals than most other defensive groups.

The 3/10 score may seem harsh, but I’d rather suggest it’s realistic.

There’s hope things can change, and that change may come soon, but for now, offence remains the biggest sticking point in the rebuild.

Grade: 3/10